Recession probability, inflation, and macro risk across economies — priced by Polymarket.
**33%** One in three. A meaningful risk, not the base case.
**40%** Notably higher than the US.
**20%** Lower than full recession odds — one bad quarter doesn't always trigger two.
**48% chance of ≥0.8% monthly** The market leans toward a hot print.
**3.1% at 35%** — the leading outcome Above the Fed's 2% target.
**2.8-3.0% at 32%** Slightly above the ECB's 2% target.
**84%** The market sees a shutdown as near-certain.
**NVIDIA: 99%** $10M volume Apple is #2 at 50%.
US recession by end of 2026?
What probability would you assign?
33%
One in three. A meaningful risk, not the base case.
Canada recession before 2027?
What probability would you assign?
40%
Notably higher than the US.
Negative GDP growth in any US quarter of 2026?
What probability would you assign?
20%
Lower than full recession odds — one bad quarter doesn't always trigger two.
March 2026 US monthly CPI — what does the market expect?
Hot or cool print?
48% chance of ≥0.8% monthly
The market leans toward a hot print.
US annual inflation for March — most likely bracket?
What probability would you assign to 3.1%?
3.1% at 35% — the leading outcome
Above the Fed's 2% target.
Eurozone annual inflation 2026 — most likely range?
What probability would you assign?
2.8-3.0% at 32%
Slightly above the ECB's 2% target.
Will the US experience another government shutdown?
What probability would you assign?
84%
The market sees a shutdown as near-certain.
Which company will be the largest by market cap at end of March 2026?
NVIDIA: 99%
$10M volume
Apple is #2 at 50%.