Polymarket Probability Drill
Guess the market probability, then see the answer. Cross-domain training that builds decision quality.
US recession by end of 2026?
33%
Unlikely
Volume: $733.0K
Iranian regime falling before 2027?
38%
Unlikely
Volume: $11.3M
A Chinese AI model becoming #1 by June 30?
19%
Long shot
Volume: $67.6K
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
2%
Long shot
Volume: $27.4M
Crude oil hitting $100 by end of March?
88%
Near certain
Volume: $9.4M
AI bubble burst by end of 2026?
18%
Long shot
Volume: $1.8M
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
9%
Long shot
Volume: $7.4M
Democrats win the 2028 presidential election?
56%
Close call
Volume: $641.9K
US invading a Latin American country in 2026?
22%
Unlikely
Volume: $178.3K
Another crypto hack over $100M in 2026?
87%
Near certain
Volume: $118.1K
SpaceX being the largest IPO of 2026?
86%
Near certain
Volume: $161.1K
China invading Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
2%
Long shot
Volume: $8.8M
Fed hiking rates at all in 2026?
15%
Long shot
Volume: $310.6K
An AI-generated song reaching Billboard #1 by June 30?
65%
Likely
Volume: $2.8K
Netanyahu out of power by end of 2026?
43%
Close call
Volume: $286.9K