Iran Conflict & Hormuz Risk
Regime collapse timelines, military ops, and oil chokepoint risk. Live from Polymarket.
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
3.6%
$34M volume
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
16%
$6M volume
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
29%
$17M volume
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
38%
$10M volume
Will US forces enter Iran by end of 2026?
63%
$24M volume
US-Iran ceasefire — what are the odds?
71% by some deadline
$29M volume
Will crude oil hit $100 by end of March?
88%
$32M volume
Will Strait of Hormuz shipping return to normal by end of April?
38%
$339K volume
Will Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by June 30?
81%
$3M volume
Is Kharg Island still under Iranian control by March 31?
No longer Iranian control: 14%
$712K volume
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
63%
$4M volume
Will Netanyahu be out of power by end of 2026?
43%
$17M volume