FOMC Meeting-by-Meeting

What will the Fed do at the **March 18-19** meeting?

**Hold: 99.6%** Cut 25bp: 0.35% Cut 50bp+: 0.05% Hike 25bp+: 0.05%

What will the Fed do at the **April 28-29** meeting?

**Hold: 95%** Cut 25bp: 3.4% Hike 25bp+: 1.7% Cut 50bp+: 1%

What will the Fed do at the **June** meeting?

**Hold: 63%** Cut 25bp: ~30% Hike: ~7%

How many **total Fed rate cuts** does the market expect in 2026?

**1 cut (25bp): 31%** ← most likely 0 cuts: 25% 2 cuts (50bp): 23% 3 cuts (75bp): 11% 4+ cuts: ~10%

By which meeting does the market expect the **first rate cut**?

**By December meeting: 78%** By June: ~37% By April: ~5%

Will the Fed **hike** rates at all in 2026?

**15%** $175K volume

Will **Jerome Powell** be removed as Fed Chair in 2026?

**~1%** $2M volume

Bank of Japan rate decision in March 2026?

**Hold: 98%** $2M volume