Which company leads the AI race? Model leaderboards, benchmarks, and disruption risk from Polymarket.
**Anthropic: 90%** $9M volume Dominant consensus based on Chatbot Arena rankings.
**OpenAI: 88%** $763K volume OpenAI holds coding despite Anthropic's overall lead.
**OpenAI: 91%** $303K volume
**Google: 85%** $141K volume
**Anthropic: 51%** $2M volume Down from 90% in March — the race tightens.
**19%** $61K volume
**18%** $2M volume Nearly 1 in 5.
**14%** FrontierMath is one of the hardest AI benchmarks.
**37%** Higher than most people expect.
**68% chance of reaching 1550+** $67K volume
Which company has the best AI model at end of March 2026?
Name the company and its probability.
Anthropic: 90%
$9M volume
Dominant consensus based on Chatbot Arena rankings.
Which company has the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Name the company.
OpenAI: 88%
$763K volume
OpenAI holds coding despite Anthropic's overall lead.
Which company has the best AI model for math on March 31?
Name the company.
OpenAI: 91%
$303K volume
Who has the #3 AI model at end of March?
Name the company.
Google: 85%
$141K volume
Which company will have the best AI model end of June?
Name the company and its probability.
Anthropic: 51%
$2M volume
Down from 90% in March — the race tightens.
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?
What probability would you assign?
19%
$61K volume
Will the AI bubble burst by end of 2026?
What probability would you assign?
18%
$2M volume
Nearly 1 in 5.
Will an AI model score ≥90% on FrontierMath before 2027?
What probability would you assign?
14%
FrontierMath is one of the hardest AI benchmarks.
Will an AI data center moratorium be passed before 2027?
What probability would you assign?
37%
Higher than most people expect.
How high will the top Chatbot Arena score reach by December 31?
68% chance of reaching 1550+
$67K volume