Common thinking traps and simple countermeasures.
Favoring evidence that supports your belief. **Fix:** actively seek disconfirming evidence.
Judging likelihood by ease of recall. **Fix:** check data/base rates when possible.
First number seen pulls your estimate. **Fix:** make an independent estimate first.
Continuing because you already invested. **Fix:** decide using future costs/benefits only.
Learning only from winners. **Fix:** include failures and missing data in the analysis.
Losses feel larger than gains. **Fix:** compare options using consistent, pre-set criteria.
Choices change when phrased differently. **Fix:** reframe in neutral terms and compare.
Overestimating accuracy. **Fix:** use ranges and track calibration over time.
Low skill can inflate confidence. **Fix:** seek feedback and objective benchmarks.
After the fact it feels inevitable. **Fix:** write predictions before outcomes.
Underestimating time/cost. **Fix:** use reference classes and add buffer.
Preferring current state. **Fix:** ask "Would I choose this if starting fresh?"
Overvaluing what you own. **Fix:** price it as if you did not own it.
One good trait colors all judgments. **Fix:** rate traits independently.
Over-assigning behavior to character. **Fix:** consider situational constraints first.
Success = me; failure = circumstance. **Fix:** run blameless postmortems with data.
Bad weighs more than good. **Fix:** track positives explicitly to balance perception.
Recent events dominate. **Fix:** look at longer time windows.
Overvaluing now vs later. **Fix:** pre-commit and reduce future friction.
Overweighting experts/leaders. **Fix:** ask for reasoning and check independent sources.
Following the crowd. **Fix:** separate popularity from correctness; test directly.
Favoring your group. **Fix:** use standardized criteria and diverse reviewers.
Judging decisions by results alone. **Fix:** evaluate decision quality given info at the time.
Overestimating influence. **Fix:** separate controllables from luck; focus on process.
Familiar feels true/better. **Fix:** deliberately compare alternatives on merits.
Favoring evidence that supports your belief.
Fix: actively seek disconfirming evidence.
Judging likelihood by ease of recall.
Fix: check data/base rates when possible.
First number seen pulls your estimate.
Fix: make an independent estimate first.
Continuing because you already invested.
Fix: decide using future costs/benefits only.
Learning only from winners.
Fix: include failures and missing data in the analysis.
Losses feel larger than gains.
Fix: compare options using consistent, pre-set criteria.
Choices change when phrased differently.
Fix: reframe in neutral terms and compare.
Overestimating accuracy.
Fix: use ranges and track calibration over time.
Low skill can inflate confidence.
Fix: seek feedback and objective benchmarks.
After the fact it feels inevitable.
Fix: write predictions before outcomes.
Underestimating time/cost.
Fix: use reference classes and add buffer.
Preferring current state.
Fix: ask "Would I choose this if starting fresh?"
Overvaluing what you own.
Fix: price it as if you did not own it.
One good trait colors all judgments.
Fix: rate traits independently.
Over-assigning behavior to character.
Fix: consider situational constraints first.
Success = me; failure = circumstance.
Fix: run blameless postmortems with data.
Bad weighs more than good.
Fix: track positives explicitly to balance perception.
Recent events dominate.
Fix: look at longer time windows.
Overvaluing now vs later.
Fix: pre-commit and reduce future friction.
Overweighting experts/leaders.
Fix: ask for reasoning and check independent sources.
Following the crowd.
Fix: separate popularity from correctness; test directly.
Favoring your group.
Fix: use standardized criteria and diverse reviewers.
Judging decisions by results alone.
Fix: evaluate decision quality given info at the time.
Overestimating influence.
Fix: separate controllables from luck; focus on process.
Familiar feels true/better.
Fix: deliberately compare alternatives on merits.