Recession probability, inflation, and macro risk across economies — priced by Polymarket.
33%
One in three. A meaningful risk, not the base case.
40%
Notably higher than the US.
20%
Lower than full recession odds — one bad quarter doesn't always trigger two.
48% chance of ≥0.8% monthly
The market leans toward a hot print.
3.1% at 35% — the leading outcome
Above the Fed's 2% target.
2.8-3.0% at 32%
Slightly above the ECB's 2% target.
84%
The market sees a shutdown as near-certain.
NVIDIA: 99%
$10M volume
Apple is #2 at 50%.