Polymarket Probability Drill
US recession
by end of 2026?
33% chance
Market activity: $733.0K
Iranian regime falling
before 2027?
38% chance
Market activity: $11.3M
Chinese AI model
becoming #1
by June 30?
19% chance
Market activity: $67.6K
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
by March 31, 2026?
2% chance
Market activity: $27.4M
Crude oil
hitting $100
by end of March?
88% chance
Market activity: $9.4M
AI bubble burst
by end of 2026?
18% chance
Market activity: $1.8M
Xi Jinping out
before 2027?
9% chance
Market activity: $7.4M
Democrats win
the 2028 presidential election?
56% chance
Market activity: $641.9K
US invading
a Latin American country
in 2026?
22% chance
Market activity: $178.3K
Another crypto hack
over $100M
in 2026?
87% chance
Market activity: $118.1K
SpaceX
being the largest IPO
of 2026?
86% chance
Market activity: $161.1K
China invading Taiwan
by March 31, 2026?
2% chance
Market activity: $8.8M
Fed hiking rates
at all in 2026?
15% chance
Market activity: $310.6K
AI-generated song
reaching Billboard #1
by June 30?
65% chance
Market activity: $2.8K
Netanyahu out of power
by end of 2026?
43% chance
Market activity: $286.9K