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Iran Conflict & Hormuz Risk

Regime collapse timelines, military ops, and oil chokepoint risk. Live from Polymarket.

Polydeck
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Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Front

3.6%
$34M volume

Back
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Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Front

16%
$6M volume

Back
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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Front

29%
$17M volume

Back
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Front

38%
$10M volume

Back
🇺🇸

Will US forces enter Iran by end of 2026?

Front

63%
$24M volume

Back
🕊️

US-Iran ceasefire — what are the odds?

Front

71% by some deadline
$29M volume

Back
⛽

Will crude oil hit $100 by end of March?

Front

88%
$32M volume

Back
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Will Strait of Hormuz shipping return to normal by end of April?

Front

38%
$339K volume

Back
📢

Will Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by June 30?

Front

81%
$3M volume

Back
🏝️

Is Kharg Island still under Iranian control by March 31?

Front

No longer Iranian control: 14%
$712K volume

Back
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Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Front

63%
$4M volume

Back
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Will Netanyahu be out of power by end of 2026?

Front

43%
$17M volume

Back