AI Race Tracker
Which company leads the AI race? Model leaderboards, benchmarks, and disruption risk from Polymarket.
Which company has the best AI model at end of March 2026?
Name the company and its probability.
Anthropic: 90%
$9M volume
Dominant consensus based on Chatbot Arena rankings.
Which company has the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Name the company.
OpenAI: 88%
$763K volume
OpenAI holds coding despite Anthropic's overall lead.
Which company has the best AI model for math on March 31?
Name the company.
OpenAI: 91%
$303K volume
Who has the #3 AI model at end of March?
Name the company.
Google: 85%
$141K volume
Which company will have the best AI model end of June?
Name the company and its probability.
Anthropic: 51%
$2M volume
Down from 90% in March — the race tightens.
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?
What probability would you assign?
19%
$61K volume
Will the AI bubble burst by end of 2026?
What probability would you assign?
18%
$2M volume
Nearly 1 in 5.
Will an AI model score ≥90% on FrontierMath before 2027?
What probability would you assign?
14%
FrontierMath is one of the hardest AI benchmarks.
Will an AI data center moratorium be passed before 2027?
What probability would you assign?
37%
Higher than most people expect.
How high will the top Chatbot Arena score reach by December 31?
68% chance of reaching 1550+
$67K volume